Monday, August 26, 2019

What’s a Tory, Balamory?

We often don’t understand what conservatism is. What we should understand is that it isn't pure evil.


Ahead of our episode with Sir John Redwood being released, I thought it would be worth revisiting what 'conservatism' is as an idea, and trying to give it a fair say in an increasingly uncompromising world.

Where does the idea come from; what does it actually believe in; and is it really important?

[Just to clarify: there is conservatism with a small ‘c’, which means the idea/ideology and Conservative with a big ‘C’, which means to belong to the political party. They are slightly different, so don't get confused!]


There are two types of people...


No, seriously. When modern political thought emerged out of the late 1700s, it basically worked out that there are two naturally opposing political groups. A yin and yang, if you will.

Firstly, there are those that want more change in society. They are ‘liberal’, or ‘progressive’, and are dissatisfied with the status quo, seeing it as allowing abuses of power. They feel the government should be the agent of change, and that individuals can benefit from government support. Business is to be regulated, and taxes higher. Labour, the Democrats (USA), the SDP (Germany) are all examples. 

To this, naturally, there must an opposite. Cue 'conservatism'. Conservatives prefers cautious, natural change over time, driven by local communities and institutions, generally feeling there is value in tradition and history. 


Slightly outdated graphic, but it roughly shows positions

They would see government-led change as dangerous, and allowing government excess, so these people prefer a smaller government and trust businesses more. They are the Conservatives (or 'Tories'), the Republicans (USA) and the CDU (Germany).

Naturally, these beliefs all range along a spectrum, with most somewhere in the middle, but if you were to divide society into two political groups, you’d find that it would broadly coalesce along these lines. There are always those who want change, and those who are cautious of it. Simple as that.




Vive la sitting-at-home!


British perception of the French chaos
Conservatism with a small ‘c’ emerged during the French Revolution, when the violent, painful destruction of the French elite (and the resultant wars) shocked much of the middle and upper class in Britain. 

In response they reestablished their commitment to trusting facts, pragmatism and the community in their politics. The flag-waving, 'egalitare'-proclaiming, abstract-thinking Revolutionaries were too distant from their own experiences. They preferred the hard truth to grand plans. 

The philosopher Michael Oakeshott put it like this: ‘To be conservative...is to prefer the familiar to the unknown, to prefer the tried to untried, fact to mystery, the actual to the possible, the limited to the unbounded, near to distant’.

It is not that conservatives hate change, but more that they trust what they can see and hear over lofty principles that mean well, but often fail. Conservatives rely on local communities to keep in check the government and the excesses of the individual. Liberals believe that government is always good, and that people are generally well-meaning. Conservatives are less naive.



The Party of Government


If you follow British or American politics, you will likely have an unfavourable view of the right-wing, having seen the behavior of President Trump, or the Conservative Party around Brexit. Yet, this is a chaotic anomaly for a group that in history has been the stewards of responsible economic management and reliability.

For instance, it was the Conservative Party that pulled Britain’s economy out of a post-World War Two slump, after the Labour Party struggled; 

it was Conservative Prime Minister Harold Macmillan in the 1960s who pioneered the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, accelerated decolonisation, and oversaw Britain's permanent transition into a modern economy by liberalising business;

thirty years later, John Major strengthened the European Union, began the Northern Ireland peace process and halved unemployment;

the Coalition austerity plans skillfully reduced a damaging budget deficit, while reducing the tax the poorest had to pay and making British universities world-class again.

Forty-four of the seventy-four years since 1945 have seen a Conservative PM. Time and time again they have been reelected. Surely, with the public so often backing them there must be merit in the Conservative belief of reliable, non-experimental politics?

Of course, we must except the present state of conservatism. It has failed to respond responsibly to nationalist populism and so has been corrupted by xenophobia and racism. Their policies are being pulled out of responsible thinking and into the realms of unicorn-land that more often belongs to the left-wing.


The sharp Republican turn to the right in the USA
has caused political deadlock

But conservatives have done a lot of good. By making progress steady, rather than excessive, and stabilising the United Kingdom when it needed it most, they have fully contributed to the effective running of this country. 

More worryingly is what fills the gap if the conservative parties crumble and forget their beliefs. Progressive parties are not perfect; something will emerge to oppose them, but it looks like 'something' will be very far right.


Conservatism isn't all bad, so it would be a shame if it screwed us over now.


Theo

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

The Donkey Kicks Back

I rate the Democrat Party's leading candidates for President.





Kamala Harris. Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren. The Democrat Party has four leading candidates for the 2020 Presidential nomination. 

After a series of local Party votes a winner will emerge to challenge President Trump for the leadership of the free world. 

And it will be one of these four; lacklustre television debates and funding limits mean that a dark horse (such as O'Rourke or Buttigieg) is becoming increasingly unlikely.

So who will, a) win the nomination?, and b) have the best chance of victory in what will likely be the most chaotic, slanderous and unpleasant election in American history? I've judged each candidate on their chances. 

But I can only cover so much, and you may disagree. Quite right. Let me know what I get wrong and what you think, in the comments or on Instagram.



Bernie Sanders


"Our infrastructure is collapsing. Teachers are underpaid. Veterans sleep on the streets. Families can't afford childcare"

Age: 77

Current Job: Independent senator for Vermont (but officially allied with Democrats)

Previous Career: Mayor of Burlington, Vermont Congressman

Rivals: 1) Kamala Harris, 2) Elizabeth Warren

In the Polls: 16.0% (RCP Poll of Polls)

Donation Record: $6mn raised within 24 hours; c.$72mn overall (precise figures unclear)

Key Policies:
  • Healthcare - introduced universal healthcare ('Medicare for All') into mainstream and frequently attacks drugs firms/bosses
  • Immigration - Backs comprehensive reform of immigration policy and enforcement
  • Climate - Pioneered 'Green New Deal' (more here) and has a history of environmental action
  • Education - Supports free tertiary education ('College for All')
  • Justice & Drugs - Prefers rehabilitation and early prevention to deterrence; pro-weed-legalisation
  • Foreign Policy - moderately isolationist; mixed on Israel; pro-defence spending cuts
  • Taxation - Much higher taxation on richest earners and businesses

Chances:

In 2016, Bernie was the outsider to Clinton, his plans on universal healthcare and free tuition dismissed as too excessive for a Presidential candidate. Yet today, with one notable exception, those ideas are values cherished across the Democrat Party. 

His perceived integrity and appeal to white working class voters - the traditional Democrat base - create significant hype and energy. But his chances of winning the nomination are limited by a lack of anything really edgy and new, allowing alternatives to flourish. The huge cost of his policies is a valid concern too.



He would not beat Trump. Four years of on-off Twitter attacks have poked holes in his broader reputation and his staunch-left position makes appeals to the centre difficult. 

His age makes a difference too; this is one of the most exhausting jobs in the world, and the reliability of an eighty year-old is thus questionable. His attitudes towards the military, a cherished icon of American power, would also not sell.

The real danger is that, upon losing the nomination, he would run anyway as an independent. This would be disastrous, siphoning key votes from the Democrats just as the electoral stakes are the highest since World War Two.

Chances of being Nominated: 7/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 5/10



Kamala Harris

"This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, your fears, and what wakes you up at 3 a.m."




Age: 54

Current Job: Democrat Senator for California

Career: District Attorney of San Francisco, Attorney General of California

Rivals: 1) Bernie Sanders, 2) Elizabeth Warren, 3) Joe Biden

In the Polls: 8.0% 

Donation Record: $1.5mn within 24 hours; $23.8mn overall


Key Policies: 
  • Healthcare - Backs 'Medicare for All' which would provide universal health insurance
  • Immigration - Opposed to most current policy (ie anti-wall, detention centres, and splitting families)
  • Climate Change - Supports the Green New Deal 
  • Education - Free college for incomes below $125,000, and has planned for a large teacher pay rise 
  • Justice & Drugs - Pro-weed legalisation; anti-death penalty; history of tough action as California DA ("I did the work of significantly reforming the criminal justice system of the state of 40 million people")
  • Foreign Policy - Favoured withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan; opposed to Yemen involvement; staunchly pro-Israel
  • Taxation - Introduced a tax cut for middle-class provisionally costing $2.8trn over a decade

Chances:

An uncontroversial, well-liked candidate, Mrs Harris sits fourth in a race of twenty-four. She is probably the most charismatic of the front-runners with relative youth and an advantageous background (child of immigrants, success as Attorney General). 

She's fairly strong on policy, with her middle-class tax cuts a detailed appeal to the centre-ground, and she has an ability to connect to key demographics. 


I don't agree with all of this, but the 29% figure is clear.
However, she will struggle to distinguish herself from the other three, being too left towards Bernie Sanders (see similarities on education, climate, and healthcare), too wonkish towards Elizabeth Warren, and sharing too many potential voters with Joe Biden. 

Yet her clear message, readiness to pivot towards the centre, and more conservative action on crime means that if she can secure the nomination, she will have a chance in the real thing. 

A quarter of Democrats already think she could beat Trump - more than most candidates. I agree.

Chances of being Nominated: 5/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 8/10


Elizabeth Warren


"Today's big tech companies have too much power-too much power over our economy, our society, and our democracy. They've bulldozed competition...and titled the playing field against everyone else."




Age: 69


Current Job: Senator for Massachusetts

Career: Law Professor; oversaw post-Recession economic stimulus; adviser to President Obama on financial fair play

Rivals: 1) Kamala Harris 2) Joe Biden

In the Polls: 17.3%

Donation Record: $300,000 within 24 hours; $25.1mn overall


Key Policies:
  • Healthcare - Backs Medicare for All and favours profit regulation for insurance companies; has suggested opening a government-run pharmaceutical firm to bring prices down
  • Immigration - pro-ICE (immigration agency) replacement; favours decriminalising illegal border crossings
  • Climate - Supports GND; wants public companies to disclose impact of climate change; has suggested new laws on water cleanliness, methane pollution, etc.
  • Education - Plans to partially forgive student debt & make public higher education free
  • Justice & Drugs - pro-weed-legalisation; anti-death penalty
  • Foreign Policy - favours Afghanistan withdrawal; opposed to Yemen involvement; has criticised Israel openly
  • Taxes - reversal of 2017 tax cuts; wealth tax on 75,000 richest Americans

Chances:

Elizabeth Warren has a reputation of being a policy 'wonk' - someone who likes detail and understands the complexity of law. Where the above candidates had eight/nine policy categories on other websites, Warren had about twelve, each properly developed.


This is in contrast to Sanders' big-picture thinking, or Harris' inexperience in high office. Warren's plans to heavily regulate Big Tech have gone down a storm, helping her sit ahead of Bernie in the polls. 

But the cost, oh the cost. $37 trillion over ten years for all her policies. And does she have the sparkle necessary to out-charm Biden?

Trump and Warren would be a very, very entertaining contest; his opportunism versus her structured detail. In theory, she is capable of gaining moderate Republican votes, but could she stand up to Trump in a TV debate, where her deliberate, scripted speech would be drowned out?

Yet the focus on plausible policy is encouraging, and if she could make the message heard, Warren would be in with a chance.

Chances of being Nominated: 7/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 7/10



Joe Biden

"We're all human, and we can all be misled. When leaders don't level with citizens, we can't expect them to make good judgments."


Age: 76

Current Job: N/A

Career: Delaware Senator; Vice-President

Rivals: 1) Elizabeth Warren.

In the Polls: 30.5%

Donation Record: $21mn April-June 2019 + $10.9mn cash on hand


Key Policies:

  • Healthcare: Wants to build upon Obamacare - which he helped introduce - but anti-Medicare for All due to cost
  • Immigration: Wants to increase border security, but not Trumpian style
  • Climate: Has not endorsed GND, but fully backs Paris Accords; criticism for 'cut and paste' climate plan
  • Education: Supports free college education; pro-universal preschool care
  • Justice & Drugs: History of deterrence-based crime law (more prison & police funding etc.)
  • Foreign Policy: Tough on Russia; supported drone strikes in Syria; anti-Libya intervention
  • Taxes: Higher taxes on wealthy Americans; increased tax relief for middle-class

Chances:

Joe Biden. Three-time Presidential contender, former vice-president, and long-term senator. After an early surge to 42%, 'Uncle Joe' has fallen somewhat, but is still the clear leader. 

A tough man lies behind the amiability; his wife and daughter died when he was 29, and a son passed away four years ago. He has integrity and commands genuine appeal in the 'rust belt' swing states, as well as having a history of pragmatism that is sorely lacking in America. 

If he showed some developed policy ideas, and overcame some awkward historical senate votes, he might be able to defend his left flank from Warren and Harris. 

But he could well stumble at the televised debates in September, and his perceptions of race, gender and personal space are still clumsy.

The Economist has written that 'Mr Biden's long-ago working class roots are [not] a substitute for the serious reappraisal of economic policy' needed. 
They aren't wrong. Biden will not bring the energetic changes that much of America is looking for. 

He is too prone to gaffes and his support base too apathetic (in comparison to the frantic cheers at rivals' rallies) to hold up for eight months against an incumbent who will find gaps and holes everywhere. He might win the working-class, but he would lose the left-wing, especially as Sanders would probably run if Biden won.


Chances of being Nominated: 8/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 4/10



This is how I ranked the four:


Winning the Nomination:


  1. Biden
  2. Warren
  3. Harris
  4. Sanders

Winning the Presidency:

  1. Harris
  2. Warren
  3. Sanders
  4. Biden

On this conclusion, it seems that Warren has the best combined chance of victory, while Biden would be thoroughly unsuitable if elected as candidate. Sanders is barely worth considering. 

Yet there are still seven months until the primaries begin in March, and anything could happen. Let's just hope 'anything' favours Kamala Harris.


Theo



Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Boris Johnson - The Greatest Juggling Act in the World

Our new Prime Minister will inherit the most embattled Government in British history.


Boris Johnson has won the Conservative leadership election. His prize is a government that has endured more defeats in the Commons under Theresa May than all governments since Callaghan put together.

And this only gets worse. His majority of 3 will probably be reduced to 1 at the upcoming Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, where the Lib Dems are favourites (remember a loss for the government is a gain for the Opposition so they actually lose two votes).

So, 1 MP out of 320 is likely all that is required to bring down Boris Johnson. He needs to keep them all on side. 

Yet the competing opinions held by those MPs are below:

"We should seek an extension past the 31st of October"
"We must leave on the 31st of October"
"No deal is required"
"No deal must be avoided at all costs"
"A second referendum is required"
"A second referendum is a subversion of democracy"
"Re-negotiate a new deal with the EU"
"The only deal we have is Theresa May's deal"
"We should seek to remain within the ETA"
"Remaining in the ETA is not Brexit"
"We should follow Norway's model"
"WTO option would be economic suicide"
"There can be no border in Ireland"

For most MPs these are uncompromising beliefs which cannot be avoided. But the majority of 1 means Prime Minister Johnson must keep all these MPs loyal and content.

And so his juggling act begins.

It's hard to promise an exit by the 31st of October yet keep pro-extension MPs happy. It's even harder to sell remainers a no-deal exit, or hard-line brexiteers on a second referendum. Hardest of all is the last statement: "There can be no border in Ireland". A no-deal would indeed introduce a border, and so would many of the other shades of Brexit. This would be unacceptable to the DUP, who would abandon Boris and give him a minority of -19.


If Boris Johnson can successfully balance these opposing groups, he will become one of this country's most talented statesmen - ever. But if just one MP dislikes him or his Brexit policies, they could abandon him and back a no-confidence vote, bringing his government crashing down. An early general election would be called.

Boris Johnson is trying to walk a tightrope over a shark infested lake, and, knowing him, his response will be completely unexpected. Why not hop across?

Salvation may come from a place least expected. The only non-Conservatives who don't want a general election are the pro-remain Independent Group for Change (formally Change UK (formally The Independent Group)). An election is likely to lose them all their seats, so they will block any no-confidence vote not related to no-deal, giving him the lifeline needed to somehow deliver Brexit.

This is somewhat conjecture; Conservative MPs may disagree with Johnson's approach but many fear Corbyn as PM enough to keep them loyal; some Labour MPs may put their personal beliefs in Brexit above the party and vote for confidence in the Conservatives.

I doubt Boris Johnson's Government will fall to a vote of no confidence. He will survive just long enough to call a General Election, which he would probably lose and no longer have deal with the political poison of Brexit.

And he won't care, he would have achieved his goal. "Prime Minister Boris Johnson" will forever be in the history books.

- Peter


(If you, like I are confused by Brexit I would recommend listening to Theo Does Brexit and Theo Updates Brexit which can be found here and here)

Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Oscillating Tones

Freedom of speech is under attack, but maybe not forever.



Freedom of speech is struggling. The ability to openly discuss our thoughts has long been an important value in western democracy. Yet internet echo chambers and the dismissal of news as 'fake' by politicians mean that we as citizens are beginning to casually reject facts and principles that we disagree with.

One psychology experiment, for instance, found that we are willing to forgo money in order to avoid experiencing opposing opinions such as on gun control or gay marriage (more here). This is inflamed by silent algorithms, subtly influencing what we see on social media.



If you can't handle criticism of minorities,
short of inciting direct violence,
then grow a thicker skin
Because the internet, for the first time in the modern era, allows us to actively avoid neutral fact and contrary opinions, making us more hostile when opposition does surface. 
It also means everything we say can be picked apart for the smallest reasons, making us quickly feel morally engulfed or uncertain. 

These effects act as a brake on the freedom to ask questions and talk about the day's key issues. Better to stay quiet than get dragged into endless, unwinnable, comment wars.

The Importance of Being Earnest


This is alarming. There's a reason free speech is enshrined in the First Amendment to the Constitution. It allows criticism of politicians and government failures; a Nobel Laureate once pointed out that 'no democracy with a free press ever endured famine'. Free debate inspires innovation and creativity, with the killing of bad ideas and the encouraging of good ones. This explains why Silicon Valley has sprung up in America, 'land of the free'.

So is society doomed to collapse into petty squabbles for the foreseeable future?
Maybe not. A similar trend often occurs in high-stress periods. For example, during the Vietnam War, Max Hastings, a historian, has pointed out that opposition to the war quickly mutated into young people admiring 'Mao Zedong, Fidel Castro, Che Guevara...heedless of the oppression their heroes promoted' (e.g. Mao's actions killed 20-45 million people). 

Apparently, if you're pro-war, you're a fascist
In this case, vague anti-war beliefs quickly evolved into support for North Vietnam, a nation which impoverished 8 million of its own people under 'rent controls'. 

Because everyone was/is so determined to get across their opinion, they shout more loudly and more radically to get attention. Anything in the middle ground is savaged by both sides, ergo, a loss of freedom of speech.

Yet in Vietnam, Saigon was overrun, the war ended and society returned to suburbia. The spite died down, and normal returned.

That holds promise for today. Freedom of speech is under threat. But it may not be permanent.


Theo

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

The Poorly Informed Blog

Hello and welcome to the Poorly Informed Blog! Below are Theo's old blog posts, preserved for posterity, but everything above this post will be published and signed by a member of the Poorly Informed Podcast.

The podcast has been on a break following a surprisingly successful Season One, but are now beginning to plan Season Two. If all goes well, the first episodes should be released in August and take us nicely into autumn, where there will be another, longer, break. This means regular blogging may not start for several weeks - although nothing is certain.

If you haven't listened to Season One, you can find the old episodes (plus much else besides) here, which should either fill the time, or put you to sleep. We'll be back soon with twenty episodes of fresh content!


Thanks,

Theo, Will, Peter and Max

A Poorly Informed Transition

So here's the good news: I'm able to blog again for the first time in ages! I'm back and ready to discuss Brexit, a Johnson premiership, Iran, Russia...everything is on the table.


However, there is bad news. This blog is struggling to get views in a very saturated market, and I can't foresee any long-term improvement. I do not have the fame, writing skill or online savviness to improve the rather dire situation. This is a bit of a stumbling block. It's hard writing to an audience you know is just your Nan and a European who mis-clicked a link.

So what to do?

Maybe you remember that podcast I mentioned a year ago (see below)? Well, it's been going strong; (https://poorlyinformed.podbean.com/) we've published thirty-odd episodes - with a Season Two currently being recorded - and we've had 1,600+ listens so far. Not bad for an amateur set-up! The four of us who make the podcast are really keen to expand, and keep growing our base.

(You may see where this is going.)

So, I and the other podcast members - Max, Will and Peter - have decided to try a merger. We feel both the blog and the podcast could benefit from each other. The blog will ideally see wider audiences and fresher content, while the podcast will develop a broader brand, and have better communication with its followers. So, in the coming days, this blog will be added to the 'Poorly Informed Podcast' brand. There will be a redesign of the whole site.

What does this mean for content? We're still exploring ideas, but it may be that we will write supplements to major episodes; cover shorter topics that can't fill 45 minutes; and write on current events in a more decisive style. It will be available for still-curious listeners, or as an alternative to enduring the regular episodes. You can still read these articles as stand-alones I hasten to add, and I will probably be at least managing much of the content anyway.

This is new, this is exciting, and I very much hope you enjoy it. As always, any questions, concerns or ideas are more than welcome.

Thanks,

Theo


'I'm in'

You! Yeah, you! We reckon you're gonna love this stuff as well...