Ra Ra Yes-Putin

We know that President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, will win the Russian general election. But who is Putin? What do we know about the election itself? And what happens afterwards?

Totally relaxed

From Russia with love

As Luet.-Colonel in the KGB

Being the world’s most promient strongman, we know a large amount about Putin and his life:

• He’s not a communist. He was one of few school students who wasn’t part of the Young Pioneers (a Soviet youth group), and only became a member of the party in order to join the Secret Service. 

• He's ex-KGB - he was a ‘foreign intelligence officer’ for the Russian secret service in East Germany, before retiring in 1991 to pursue politics.

• He’s patient. His rise to power was by toiling up through obscure government departments, and working between St. Petersburg and Moscow, for most of the 1990s. 

• He’s ruthless. His involvement during the Second Chechen War (against Islamists in South Russia) led to aerial bombing, killing of civilians and refugees, and the destruction of the local capital Grozny - then called the 'most destroyed city on Earth'.

Grozny during its long siege in 1999/2000



• And he likes power. Instead of retiring after the two-term Presidential limit expired in 2008, he became Prime Minister with one of his cronies as President. Term limits were then extended, and he came back in 2012 for a nice long 6 year rule. He clearly enjoys office. 

[To be clear, there's no conclusive evidence the elections are rigged, it's more that he uses the state media and overwhelming resources at his disposal, while bullying any threats out of the running - it's a fair election, just not a fair contest].

They're technically free and fair...

The Russian election itself isn’t too complicated - there are seven contenders, all from bland sounding parties. If one gets a clear majority on March 18th, then they win. If not, they go again on April 8th. 

Navalny being suddenly arrested by police in public

The only engaging hopeful is Alexei Navalny, who is (if you’ll pardon my lack of neutrality), awesome. Navalny's a reformist campaigner trying to push Putin and his corruption out of Government; he's seen as the one voice of a fresh Russia - the only candidate who could hurt Putin's majority. 

Therefore, he's been imprisoned by the police on trumped-up charges. (What? You didn't think it'd be a fair contest, did you?)

Fourth term lucky?

There's no knowing how long Putin's seeking power for, but there are some rough ideas as to what he might do in his next term.

• Solve the Syria problem. It might not quite become the Soviet Afghanistan, but it's looking like a painful quagmire. Assad seemed on the brink of victory, but further Turkish and US involvement has complicated the scenario. It's sucking in Russian resources and Putin needs to end the conflict soon or it could spiral out of his control.

Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and Vladimir Putin of Russia - close allies

• Rescue the economy. Remember those sanctions thrown at Russia after invading Crimea? They've been working quite effectively, along with low oil prices and poor foreign investment. GDP is low, and the government is cash-starved. Measures so far have had little impact.

• Curb corruption. It's 'the one issue that galvanises the Russian people into protest' according to William Pomeranz, an expert on Russia. Seen as a hallmark from the Communist era, it riles people into marches and strikes against the government - a government filled with Putin's friends and cronies siphoning off state funds. They won't bring him down, but if he allows corruption to continue, it will certainly weaken his position.

Anti-corruption protests in March 2017

Putin has a bigger job to do than his propaganda machine tells us. In the west we fear his leadership, but Russia is beset by far more problems than we think. With a struggling economy, an unwinnable war, and rampant corruption, the next six years are a critical moment for the shaping of the 21st Century Russian Federation