What happens in Cameroon stays in Cameroon

Special Report

Anglo-French-German wars are a thing of the centuries past; times of armoured warfare, moral conflict, and Blitkreig. But their legacy, or more specifically their languages, are grappling fiercely once more in Cameroon, and protests are threatening to turn into long-lasting violence.

But I imagine you have little idea what I’m talking about. 

The Country that sounds like my cousins' middle name

According to the BBC, Cameroon is so diverse that it’s called an ‘Africa in miniature’, describing it as having ‘one of the highest literacy rates on the continent...but hampered by the persistent problem of corruption’. 

Indeed in 1998, it was ranked as the most corrupt country in the world to do business with.

German troops in 'Kamerun'

Initially discovered by the Portuguese, by 1884 it was in German hands during their desperate scramble for Empire. 

Expanded in 1911, then annexed by neighbouring French and British colonies in 1916, it was divided after the First World War: 80% to the French, 20% to the British.


By 1961, the two parts had decolonised and joined, forming modern Cameroon. In 1983, Paul Biya became President and has fiddled the constitution to give him extra terms since. 

Meanwhile, the Anglophone (English-speaking) West grew slowly more resentful at the disproportionate dominance of the Francophone (French-speaking) majority, who hold top posts in government, receive more funding for public projects, and are better treated.

Map outlining the spread of English and French.
The Anglophone region is visible in the West

In November 2016, the Government tried to impose French upon local courts in West Cameroon. 

In doing so it offended the English-speaking population, proud of not being of the 64% who speak French. Protests followed.

If you can't beat 'em...shoot them.

The rallies grew and grew in size, joined by teachers too. The campaigns began to focus on still-rampant corruption and poor governance, alarming Biya. Separatism became a semi-serious prospect, hoping for the independent state for ‘Ambazonia’.

The security forces reacted harshly, firing live rounds and teargas into a market in Bamenda, the region's largest city, killing four. 

The internet was then shut down in the area, with local campaigners, lawyers, and human rights activists detained. In response a separatist bomb attack was launched, wounding three policemen.

So the military was deployed. Which always goes well. A peak day of demonstrations were planned in late September. Business were closed; gatherings of over four people were banned, movement around English-speaking regions was forbidden. Tensions were high.

The army watches over Anglophone prisoners

Guess what? The military killed eight people at those protests, with more wounded.

It then deployed teargas to deter from approaching the regional governor's office, clashing with separatists. 

By the end of October, 40 were dead, 100 injured, and between 7,000 and 20,000 had fled to Nigeria.



Counter-protests were held in Douala, Cameroon's commercial capital, but then counter-counter violence erupted when protestors killed four Cameroonian soldiers. Opposition Parties lodged their complaints during a budget debate, using...vuvuzela horns. 

(I thought they'd gone away after the 2010 World Cup - apparently not.)

Oh, and they did some wonderful singing (link here)

President Biya...not looking anxious at all.

Despite the persecution, the movement has grown stronger and stronger. Biya is next in a procession of African leaders 
(read: dictators) who are struggling when social protest meets social media. 

Mugabe couldn't keep a lid on it; Zuma faced expose after expose; Desalegn (Ethiopia) was thrown out by constant anger. 

The elections later this year will see the opposition fired up and making life awkward for him - that is, if the country is peaceful enough to hold a vote.

The good news is that Biya has suggested that he's open to dialogue and the decentralisation of power. Unfortunately, he hasn't addressed the blatant illegality of the security forces' behaviour. Instead he's praised them, ignoring the huge casualties and refugees involved in their crackdown.

Violence at the October protests in Bamenda

But depite this, Agbor Nkongho, a leader of the protesters, is calling for the radicals on both sides to cease their violence, reminding them that “We can still live as one; unity in diversity,”. This is a strikingly different tone to the leaders of other, often-militant, civil campaigns elsewhere.

The media is only slowly waking up to the unrest in Cameroon. Wearied of seemingly constant hotspots all over the continent, there's little appetite in the industry or at home for yet another story about a failing African country. 

But this is important. 

It may spiral into civil war or turn into a long-running insurgency - neither are remote possibilities. But there's a chance it will be settled peacefully; both leaders could be open to dialogue, with a mind for a peaceful settlement. 

And that would be a wonderful thing indeed for Africa.

Pride of the continent one day soon?

Big Thanks to the Guardian, whose section on Cameroon I plundered for this post. If you want more information, they have great articles on the whole saga.

As a side note, the Easter holidays are approaching, so I'm afraid can't guarantee a post in two weeks time, as other commitments take priority.

Happy Easter!

Theo

Ra Ra Yes-Putin

We know that President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, will win the Russian general election. But who is Putin? What do we know about the election itself? And what happens afterwards?

Totally relaxed

From Russia with love

As Luet.-Colonel in the KGB

Being the world’s most promient strongman, we know a large amount about Putin and his life:

• He’s not a communist. He was one of few school students who wasn’t part of the Young Pioneers (a Soviet youth group), and only became a member of the party in order to join the Secret Service. 

• He's ex-KGB - he was a ‘foreign intelligence officer’ for the Russian secret service in East Germany, before retiring in 1991 to pursue politics.

• He’s patient. His rise to power was by toiling up through obscure government departments, and working between St. Petersburg and Moscow, for most of the 1990s. 

• He’s ruthless. His involvement during the Second Chechen War (against Islamists in South Russia) led to aerial bombing, killing of civilians and refugees, and the destruction of the local capital Grozny - then called the 'most destroyed city on Earth'.

Grozny during its long siege in 1999/2000



• And he likes power. Instead of retiring after the two-term Presidential limit expired in 2008, he became Prime Minister with one of his cronies as President. Term limits were then extended, and he came back in 2012 for a nice long 6 year rule. He clearly enjoys office. 

[To be clear, there's no conclusive evidence the elections are rigged, it's more that he uses the state media and overwhelming resources at his disposal, while bullying any threats out of the running - it's a fair election, just not a fair contest].

They're technically free and fair...

The Russian election itself isn’t too complicated - there are seven contenders, all from bland sounding parties. If one gets a clear majority on March 18th, then they win. If not, they go again on April 8th. 

Navalny being suddenly arrested by police in public

The only engaging hopeful is Alexei Navalny, who is (if you’ll pardon my lack of neutrality), awesome. Navalny's a reformist campaigner trying to push Putin and his corruption out of Government; he's seen as the one voice of a fresh Russia - the only candidate who could hurt Putin's majority. 

Therefore, he's been imprisoned by the police on trumped-up charges. (What? You didn't think it'd be a fair contest, did you?)

Fourth term lucky?

There's no knowing how long Putin's seeking power for, but there are some rough ideas as to what he might do in his next term.

• Solve the Syria problem. It might not quite become the Soviet Afghanistan, but it's looking like a painful quagmire. Assad seemed on the brink of victory, but further Turkish and US involvement has complicated the scenario. It's sucking in Russian resources and Putin needs to end the conflict soon or it could spiral out of his control.

Bashar al-Assad of Syria, and Vladimir Putin of Russia - close allies

• Rescue the economy. Remember those sanctions thrown at Russia after invading Crimea? They've been working quite effectively, along with low oil prices and poor foreign investment. GDP is low, and the government is cash-starved. Measures so far have had little impact.

• Curb corruption. It's 'the one issue that galvanises the Russian people into protest' according to William Pomeranz, an expert on Russia. Seen as a hallmark from the Communist era, it riles people into marches and strikes against the government - a government filled with Putin's friends and cronies siphoning off state funds. They won't bring him down, but if he allows corruption to continue, it will certainly weaken his position.

Anti-corruption protests in March 2017

Putin has a bigger job to do than his propaganda machine tells us. In the west we fear his leadership, but Russia is beset by far more problems than we think. With a struggling economy, an unwinnable war, and rampant corruption, the next six years are a critical moment for the shaping of the 21st Century Russian Federation

Special Report

'Special Report '

Different people like different blog posts. Some prefer coverage of topical events, whereas others like subjects off the beaten track. Some like it short and snappy, others like drawn out, thoughtful pieces. 

To help you clarify between the two, I'm introducing a new format: the 'Special Report'. 

The idea is that most of the time (6/10) I'll look at current topics and discuss them in a small, accessible, format. But I'll ocassionally write an original piece on a unique area. 

Recently, I wrote about the collapse of Big Tech - that is now a Special Report. Likewise, the monsoon/hurricanes comparison, and my article on the UK arms trade.

A Special Report will be several things:

• It will be on an original idea that you won't have heard about in the news
• It will involve more opinion and commentary from me 
• And it will likely be more developed, and so longer (but not always).

So thank you for reading and enjoying the blog, and I hope this makes it easier to find articles you want to read in the future! 

Theo

(Also, here's a nice photo of Justin Trudeau - Prime Minister of Canada)