A Stubborn Donkey

After damaging losses last year, the Democrat Party is re-emerging and gaining ground again. 

It’s had successes in Virginia and New Jersey, and may do well in Alabama.

Virginia:

(Governor, Lieutenant-Governor, Attorney-general, House of Delegates up for election)

The New York Times called the Virginia elections the “purest form of grassroots anger” at President Trump. The convincing vote for the Democrat Party suggests that the people are getting fed up with his leadership.

Ralph Northam - staying on as Governor -  beat rival Ed Gillespie by a margin of 231,715 votes; that’s an 8.9% lead. 
Northam is not a typical Democrat. He has vowed to work with President Trump, and admits to twice voting for George W. Bush. But this stance seems to have secured many swing voters, attracted by his more moderate style.

Northam (left) and Fairfax (right) celebrate

Meanwhile, Justin Fairfax became Virginia’s new Lieutenant-Governor, while Mark Herring held onto his attorney-general seat. They are both Democrats. 

Then in a vote almost too close to count, they took the House of Delegates (i.e. the House of Lords) from the Republicans, who'd previously had a 2:1 majority.

This is a big success for the Democrats. Yes, the opposition normally does well in the local elections, and yes, they were already strong in Virginia. 

But they’ve shown an ability to take the more moderate centre ground with well-chosen candidates. Mr Northam is polled to have won votes on healthcare and opposition to Trump. The Republican Party doesn’t have a convincing answer to either of these issues.


New Jersey:

(Governor, Senate, Assembly, Mayors)

Election map -
New York is in the top right.

In a state that traditionally bucks the trend, former President Barack Obama and native rock star Bon Jovi both supported Phil Murphy to his first political victory: the Democrat candidate soundly beat Kim Guadagno to the Governorship, enjoying a 13.3% margin.

The victory here was slightly more expected: there are 900,000 more Democrat members than Republican members, and the Democrats won here comfortably last year. 
Also, neither candidate was overly-exciting. Turnout was low, inevitably favouring the Democrats.

But any victory is welcome for the Party right now, and the success will hold off internal squabbling and divisions. They have majorities in the State Senate and Assembly, facing down Republican opposition, and giving them a secure base for the next election.







Alabama:

(Senator, State House)


After one of Alabama’s senators, Jeff Sessions, became Attorney-General to the United States, a new senator was needed. Cue a special election in this deeply Republican state.

The Republican front-runner is Roy Moore. Mr Moore is a revolver-waving, twice-suspended Chief Justice seen as a religious Conservative. His Democrat opponent is Doug Jones, a former Prosecutor from a blue-collar background. 

The Democrats are encouraged by their recent success in special elections (see above) and Moore’s odd inability to perform well in the general vote (he scraped through in 2012).
The Democratic National Committee has sent research reports and a personal profile on Moore. (Former Vice-President) Joe Biden has visited. The Party has sensed they may have a chance.

It’s an outside chance in this deeply religious, Bible-bashing territory, but it’s a chance nonetheless. A victory here would be a critical defeat for the Republican Party -  even a narrow defeat would enhearten the Democrats. 

Jones is fishing for those apathetic about Trump - maybe 37% of the electorate - but his traditional Democrat beliefs may hold him back: he’s energetic over renewable energy, education reform, and abortion. 

It’s too close to call.

Stay tuned for December 12th.