Creek. No paddle.

We are not legal experts, but we believe that, more than anything else since June 2016, it is the Supreme Court case against Boris Johnson that will be remembered in the future.

When Parliament gains more powers, history notices. The Magna Carta, the English Civil War, the Great Reform Act in 1832; all led to huge changes in the way this island is governed. The Supreme Court unanimously declared that the Prime Minister has overreached his power, which limits what future Prime Ministers can or cannot do. This implicitly gives Parliament more power, and sets a precedent that the Supreme Court can overrule the Prime Minister's actions.

This is because we have no codified constitution. In most countries, the constitution is the political rulebook, dictating what politicians are able to do, what powers the various branches of government have and where their limits are. In the UK, the rulebook doesn't exist.

Or, rather, it does, but across a sprawling mass of documents, and mostly in the minds of the rule-keepers (the Speaker and their Deputies) and players (MPs and the PM) instead of in one central place. This means the rules are often fluid, changeable, or can even be ignored. Unlike in the US, the Prime Minister could become a dictator if they get enough votes (and if the Queen obliges - but that's a whole other issue).

So Boris Johnson, in trying to limit Parliament's power by shutting up shop for five weeks, has only achieved a muscular extension of Parliamentary sovereignty at his own expense. Aside from the rather satisfying end result this is, future Prime Ministers will curse him for how much harder their jobs have been made. Running the country is an intensely stressful occupation, never mind having to deal with one of the most active parliaments in the world. And now said parliament has suddenly been endowed with new possibilities and freedoms to act against the PM.

He is in trouble. This is not a magistrates court dealing in petty theft. The most intelligent and experienced justices in the country have declared him a criminal - a man who has broken the law. In moral terms, that is a deeply alarming judgement of a figure in No.10. In political terms, that means Johnson is likely to lose support from moderate Conservative MPs and much of the more liberal party membership, plus a swathe of the middle-class at an election. Resignation calls are coming from every quarter; remainers are-invigorated, leavers are demoralised; this is a man in trouble.

Don't write him off yet. Laura Kuenssberg earlier suggested that we must not 'underestimate how aggressive Number 10 might be willing to be in response'. In New York for the United Nations Assembly, Johnson could well fly straight home to start an immediate counter-campaign. He still has options. He still has power.

Yet this is a man who has lost all six of his first Commons votes, broken the law and misled the monarch. His Premiership has not been a success story.

And don't you think he looks tired?


Theo

Boris Johnson - The Greatest Juggling Act in the World

Our new Prime Minister will inherit the most embattled Government in British history.

Boris Johnson has won the Conservative leadership election. His prize is a government that has endured more defeats in the Commons under Theresa May than all governments since Callaghan put together.

And this only gets worse. His majority of 3 will probably be reduced to 1 at the upcoming Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, where the Lib Dems are favourites (remember a loss for the government is a gain for the Opposition so they actually lose two votes).

So, 1 MP out of 320 is likely all that is required to bring down Boris Johnson. He needs to keep them all on side. 

Yet the competing opinions held by those MPs are below:

"We should seek an extension past the 31st of October"

"We must leave on the 31st of October"

"No deal is required"

"No deal must be avoided at all costs"

"A second referendum is required"

"A second referendum is a subversion of democracy"

"Re-negotiate a new deal with the EU"

"The only deal we have is Theresa May's deal"

"We should seek to remain within the ETA"

"Remaining in the ETA is not Brexit"

"We should follow Norway's model"

"WTO option would be economic suicide"

"There can be no border in Ireland"

For most MPs these are uncompromising beliefs which cannot be avoided. But the majority of 1 means Prime Minister Johnson must keep all these MPs loyal and content.

And so his juggling act begins.

It's hard to promise an exit by the 31st of October yet keep pro-extension MPs happy. It's even harder to sell remainers a no-deal exit, or hard-line brexiteers on a second referendum. Hardest of all is the last statement: "There can be no border in Ireland". A no-deal would indeed introduce a border, and so would many of the other shades of Brexit. This would be unacceptable to the DUP, who would abandon Boris and give him a minority of -19.

If Boris Johnson can successfully balance these opposing groups, he will become one of this country's most talented statesmen - ever. But if just one MP dislikes him or his Brexit policies, they could abandon him and back a no-confidence vote, bringing his government crashing down. An early general election would be called.

Boris Johnson is trying to walk a tightrope over a shark infested lake, and, knowing him, his response will be completely unexpected. Why not hop across?

Salvation may come from a place least expected. The only non-Conservatives who don't want a general election are the pro-remain Independent Group for Change (formally Change UK (formally The Independent Group)). An election is likely to lose them all their seats, so they will block any no-confidence vote not related to no-deal, giving him the lifeline needed to somehow deliver Brexit.

This is somewhat conjecture; Conservative MPs may disagree with Johnson's approach but many fear Corbyn as PM enough to keep them loyal; some Labour MPs may put their personal beliefs in Brexit above the party and vote for confidence in the Conservatives.

I doubt Boris Johnson's Government will fall to a vote of no confidence. He will survive just long enough to call a General Election, which he would probably lose and no longer have deal with the political poison of Brexit.

And he won't care, he would have achieved his goal. "Prime Minister Boris Johnson" will forever be in the history books.

- Peter

(If you, like I are confused by Brexit I would recommend listening to Theo Does Brexit and Theo Updates Brexit which can be found here and here)

British Politics - Pt.2

We more or less covered the parties last time, so let's see where and how they actually operate.

British Parliament for dummies.



The Houses of Parliament on the banks of the Thames

This (on the right) is the Houses of Parliament, also known as the Palace of Westminster. It's a set of buildings on the North Bank of the River Thames, in the centre of London.

The Houses of Parliament is where the Government (the political party with the most MPs*) and the 'opposition' operates. Parliament itself is the various groups and bodies that try to pass laws, or oppose them, and create a democratic way of running a country. Basically, the Government is within Parliament. It's where new proposals are debated, laws are passed, and the Government's actions are challenged. War is declared within those chambers. So how does it all work?



An empty House of Commons - there's more seats upstairs.

First, we have the House of Commons, which is where MPs meet and discuss laws, as well as vote on them or challenge them. Each MP has one vote, and they generally vote depending on what their party believes, i.e. Conservative leaders might ask their MPs to vote in favour of raising the minimum wage (although they are allowed to refuse and vote differently). If a law is passed through here, it then goes to the House of Lords.




The House of Lords is the second chamber, and its main task is examining laws passed by the Commons. It contains around 800 members, who are mostly hand-picked for their knowledge of law, business, society etc. It also contains Bishops and hereditary peers (their parents were Lords and passed the title down to them) They are required to examine the law in physical form and check for errors and loopholes, as well as challenging the government about anything questionable.

A law can be stopped and returned to the House of Commons, if the members feel that it needs improvement.


House of Lords on a quiet day

The third stage of Parliament is the Monarch (i.e. the Queen). She mainly has a ceremonial role, meeting the Prime Minister once a week to discuss various affairs, and officially approving laws - which she must do. (Although if she feels that a law will cause harm to Britain, or isn't justified, she may object). Once she approves a law, it becomes legally binding, and the government can begin to implement it.

There we go, the British Parliament in a nutshell! I know there's probably still some gaps, but hopefully we'll cover those off in the third and last post of this series - coming soon (hopefully before Christmas). 

Also, check out Joel's film blog, I don't have the link, but it's on some of my other posts at the bottom. He's started a sweet little 'Thursday rant' section, where he discusses all sorts of things. It's actually rather good.


*MPs: the person, often from a certain party, that an area chooses to represent their people's interests in Parliament. All of the 650 MPs can vote once on each law, often voting how their party wants them to vote.