A Fresh Approach

Theo normally writes on this blog, but today Colin Stokes, who grew up in the Second World War and its aftermath, gives his thoughts on Covid-19, and whether a National Government is the way forward.

The Problem

Here we are in the centre of a pandemic; something I never thought would write. Through the years we have somehow manged countless worrying situations – most of which have been human-made: banks going bust; 3-day week; interest rates at over 15%; business shut downs; industrial change; increases in poverty, and so on.

But this time the situation is different. It is nature fighting back against the human world, a world failing to realise that it was built by destroying nature. This is a situation being spread by travel – air and sea – spread by crowds together, spread by a simple cough.

The nearest I can remember witnessing anything like this was when we had a world war. But then that was man-made as well, and it was a world problem, not a UK problem or a family problem. We were all involved in the fight then, as now, but there was much less responsibility then. We couldn't change the war ourselves. This time even that is different. If we don't self-isolate, we could end a life.

The British Solution?

So this is a new situation. We are challenged by it, but so are our leaders. How should they respond? What does Boris Johnson do?

We must remember that in all great historical crises there's never a magic map of what to do. It seems like there should be, but each problem is different and requires unique responses. This time is no different. There is no easy answer. But history may help.

Our political system is set up to be constantly confrontational; the opposition must argue, debate and question against the government, who in turn fight back. It is not set up to deal with a problem that requires unity - a pandemic, least of all. So how do we overcome the lack of compromise, and forge a united parliament?

At the top of all the British political parties are well-meaning individuals with great intellectual capacity. Of course, you may not agree with many, or maybe none, of them. But the reality is they are our leaders. Voted in, and responsible. They must take charge. Yet the current system means that either side can only ever command about half of the country. Half of the brains and backing are out of reach.

This cannot stand. In the last world crisis the UK faced, it was Labour who, in tandem with Churchill, created a 'government of national unity'. A government where all parties worked together, took up cabinet posts together, and abstained from fighting each other in favour of a greater goal. Winston Churchill is (rightly) remembered as the front-man, but it was a team which saved us from the Nazis.

For instance, in the first war cabinet were Conservatives Churchill, Neville Chamberlain and Lord Halifax, with Labour MPs Clement Attlee and Arthur Greenwood. It was these key figures who first set the country on its path to victory.

And never since has the call been so strong for a united front, drawing from all the depth of British public service. Imagine Labour stalwarts such as Hilary Benn and Yvette Cooper working alongside Rishi Sunak and Michael Gove, pooling their experience and dedication, creating a consensus to respond to this crisis. Instead, we have Corbyn on the sidelines, watching, as the government implements the exact policies he promised in the 2019 election.

The wartime coalition locked in the critics looking for political gain, and meant all those in Westminster and Whitehall were focused on a common goal: victory. Every voter was represented. Every opinion was heard. 100% of the effort was aimed at solving the problem.

And that is what we need right now.

Despite their differences, will Boris realise this is the moment to reach across the divide, and have the humility to ask for Labour's help?

He is being lauded as a capable Prime Minister for his response so far to Coronavirus, but this is a crisis which will keep on rolling and he'll need all the help he can get before long.

It's time to stop being a good PM, and to become a great man.

It's time to call a National Government.


CTS 20/03/27

Boris Johnson - The Greatest Juggling Act in the World

Our new Prime Minister will inherit the most embattled Government in British history.

Boris Johnson has won the Conservative leadership election. His prize is a government that has endured more defeats in the Commons under Theresa May than all governments since Callaghan put together.

And this only gets worse. His majority of 3 will probably be reduced to 1 at the upcoming Brecon and Radnorshire by-election, where the Lib Dems are favourites (remember a loss for the government is a gain for the Opposition so they actually lose two votes).

So, 1 MP out of 320 is likely all that is required to bring down Boris Johnson. He needs to keep them all on side. 

Yet the competing opinions held by those MPs are below:

"We should seek an extension past the 31st of October"

"We must leave on the 31st of October"

"No deal is required"

"No deal must be avoided at all costs"

"A second referendum is required"

"A second referendum is a subversion of democracy"

"Re-negotiate a new deal with the EU"

"The only deal we have is Theresa May's deal"

"We should seek to remain within the ETA"

"Remaining in the ETA is not Brexit"

"We should follow Norway's model"

"WTO option would be economic suicide"

"There can be no border in Ireland"

For most MPs these are uncompromising beliefs which cannot be avoided. But the majority of 1 means Prime Minister Johnson must keep all these MPs loyal and content.

And so his juggling act begins.

It's hard to promise an exit by the 31st of October yet keep pro-extension MPs happy. It's even harder to sell remainers a no-deal exit, or hard-line brexiteers on a second referendum. Hardest of all is the last statement: "There can be no border in Ireland". A no-deal would indeed introduce a border, and so would many of the other shades of Brexit. This would be unacceptable to the DUP, who would abandon Boris and give him a minority of -19.

If Boris Johnson can successfully balance these opposing groups, he will become one of this country's most talented statesmen - ever. But if just one MP dislikes him or his Brexit policies, they could abandon him and back a no-confidence vote, bringing his government crashing down. An early general election would be called.

Boris Johnson is trying to walk a tightrope over a shark infested lake, and, knowing him, his response will be completely unexpected. Why not hop across?

Salvation may come from a place least expected. The only non-Conservatives who don't want a general election are the pro-remain Independent Group for Change (formally Change UK (formally The Independent Group)). An election is likely to lose them all their seats, so they will block any no-confidence vote not related to no-deal, giving him the lifeline needed to somehow deliver Brexit.

This is somewhat conjecture; Conservative MPs may disagree with Johnson's approach but many fear Corbyn as PM enough to keep them loyal; some Labour MPs may put their personal beliefs in Brexit above the party and vote for confidence in the Conservatives.

I doubt Boris Johnson's Government will fall to a vote of no confidence. He will survive just long enough to call a General Election, which he would probably lose and no longer have deal with the political poison of Brexit.

And he won't care, he would have achieved his goal. "Prime Minister Boris Johnson" will forever be in the history books.

- Peter

(If you, like I are confused by Brexit I would recommend listening to Theo Does Brexit and Theo Updates Brexit which can be found here and here)

To win the peace, you need to get a move on

One of the most common trends in politics the world over is that laws are passed thick and fast in times of crisis, but during the more mundane periods... there’s just not a lot of action. Which isn’t a good thing.

Politics and trampolines

(Not our trampoline)

Passing laws is a lot like putting the rain cover on our trampoline. When it’s nice and sunny, there’s other things we want to do, and there’s no need to put the cover on (at least, none of us bother).

Then later, it rains. If we want the trampoline to stay dry, we have to put the cover on. But why would we go out in the freezing rain and spend a good fifteen minutes tying up knots? We know the rain will soon pass and putting the cover on is more trouble than it’s worth. Except, when we next go on for a bounce, water will trickle down, soaking our feet and clothes, ruining the fun, and reminding us why the cover really should be used.

When domestic politics are in good shape and the international scene is quiet (good weather) Prime Ministers and Presidents don’t want to expend effort on controversial, seemingly worthless, reform (cover). There’s no perceived need to do such a thing, and why risk the peace anyway?  

After Brown announced the banking bailout during the Recession

But when crisis comes (the rainstorm) there’s massive legislation to arrange: bail-outs; troop manoeuvres; sanctions. 
All the reformist laws that would've stopped the calamity (the rain cover) had been ignored, and are now rushed through half-baked, only able to limit damage. 
Any other great ideas, so needed for the future, are dropped in this time of emergency. 
And then the crisis ends and the sun returns. We relax and ignore looming problems




There are many problems in our politics and economy that could have been resolved years ago, or need to be resolved now, before the rain comes. As this is a politics blog, let’s look at...

Parliamentary Reform BREXIT

Parliament is currently engaged in fierce debate over the manner and means of Brexit, and are so absorbed by it that another huge crisis is slipping by: Parliamentary reform. While MPs argue over the Northern Irish border and fishing quotas, Westminster Palace (where Parliament sits), and British democracy itself, is wobbling around them. The old way has worked for hundreds of years. But it’s time to move on. 

To summarise, there are three problems:

1) Structural failure. The building is (at its youngest) 150 years old, with many aspects dating back to medieval times - only slightly older than Vince Cable. 

The building is filled with asbestos-lined pipes, rats, and dodgy plumbing; the whole place is gradually sinking into the Thames, crammed with awkward offices and too-small chambers. 

The Commons never fitted all 650 MPs (some of whom have to stand), and why on Earth is there an underground shooting range, but a chronic shortage of female toilets?

2) Odd customs. No clapping in the chamber. Sword hooks in the changing rooms. Having to reserve seats for ‘Prayers’. 
The place is chockablock with odd traditions and procedures that a) defy common sense, and b) make it seem out of touch; too many MPs see these bizarrities as part of the UK’s great heritage and not as the elitist images they give off. 
Call me fussy, but I like my Parliament to have a dash of normality.

How to reserve seats in the Commons -
surely a seating plan would do?

3) Dodgy democracy. We use a ‘First Past the Post’ method: the party which gets 326 seats is automatically in power, and can pass laws at their will (as long as the MPs behave). It ignores minority parties (the Greens and LDs get lots of votes but are too spread out to get many seats) and means people can’t directly choose their leaders, or dictate their agendum. 

Much better would be a ‘Proportional Representation’ format, where we would vote separately for a local rep and the central government - the percentage of votes a party receives equals the percentage of seats it takes in the central government. It’s representative, fair, and accountable.

The US's government if it had PR - much more balanced.

So what’s needed is a huge reform bill. Firstly, to move Parliament to a purpose-built centre further north. It would make life nicer for MPs, and improve the efficiency of law-making. This would also leave behind the weird traditions in the old building (which could be a museum and/or a centre of culture).

This would then be accompanied by electoral reform, to shake up British democracy, forcing the parties to adapt for the better. We’d have a more direct, approachable Parliament.

Wake me up when it's all over

But with the Crash, austerity, and Brexit, such reform is not likely. Only Labour could have done it this century, probably from 2004-2006. It’s not the only quiet problem we face either: there are fears than may be another mortgage crisis in 2030 (too many have taken out costly mortgages), and social mobility, hailed as Britain’s specialty, is falling apart. 

Recessions come every 10/15 years (see downturns in economic growth)...
...we're due for another one soon.

Even post-Brexit, laws to change any of these problems won’t come about until there’s a relevant crisis of some sort. I wonder what other reforms the government will decide to neglect then?