The Donkey Kicks Back

I rate the Democrat Party's leading candidates for President.

Kamala Harris. Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden. Elizabeth Warren. The Democrat Party has four leading candidates for the 2020 Presidential nomination. 

After a series of local Party votes a winner will emerge to challenge President Trump for the leadership of the free world. 

And it will be one of these four; lacklustre television debates and funding limits mean that a dark horse (such as O'Rourke or Buttigieg) is becoming increasingly unlikely.

So who will, a) win the nomination?, and b) have the best chance of victory in what will likely be the most chaotic, slanderous and unpleasant election in American history? I've judged each candidate on their chances. 

But I can only cover so much, and you may disagree. Quite right. Let me know what I get wrong and what you think, in the comments or on Instagram.

Bernie Sanders

"Our infrastructure is collapsing. Teachers are underpaid. Veterans sleep on the streets. Families can't afford childcare"

Age: 77

Current Job: Independent senator for Vermont (but officially allied with Democrats)

Previous Career: Mayor of Burlington, Vermont Congressman

Rivals: 1) Kamala Harris, 2) Elizabeth Warren

In the Polls: 16.0% (RCP Poll of Polls)

Donation Record: $6mn raised within 24 hours; c.$72mn overall (precise figures unclear)

Key Policies:

• Healthcare - introduced universal healthcare ('Medicare for All') into mainstream and frequently attacks drugs firms/bosses

• Immigration - Backs comprehensive reform of immigration policy and enforcement

• Climate - Pioneered 'Green New Deal' (more here) and has a history of environmental action

• Education - Supports free tertiary education ('College for All')

• Justice & Drugs - Prefers rehabilitation and early prevention to deterrence; pro-weed-legalisation

• Foreign Policy - moderately isolationist; mixed on Israel; pro-defence spending cuts

• Taxation - Much higher taxation on richest earners and businesses

Chances:

In 2016, Bernie was the outsider to Clinton, his plans on universal healthcare and free tuition dismissed as too excessive for a Presidential candidate. Yet today, with one notable exception, those ideas are values cherished across the Democrat Party. 

His perceived integrity and appeal to white working class voters - the traditional Democrat base - create significant hype and energy. But his chances of winning the nomination are limited by a lack of anything really edgy and new, allowing alternatives to flourish. The huge cost of his policies is a valid concern too.

He would not beat Trump. Four years of on-off Twitter attacks have poked holes in his broader reputation and his staunch-left position makes appeals to the centre difficult. 

His age makes a difference too; this is one of the most exhausting jobs in the world, and the reliability of an eighty year-old is thus questionable. His attitudes towards the military, a cherished icon of American power, would also not sell.

The real danger is that, upon losing the nomination, he would run anyway as an independent. This would be disastrous, siphoning key votes from the Democrats just as the electoral stakes are the highest since World War Two.

Chances of being Nominated: 7/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 5/10

Kamala Harris

"This election is about you, your hopes, your dreams, your fears, and what wakes you up at 3 a.m."

Age: 54

Current Job: Democrat Senator for California

Career: District Attorney of San Francisco, Attorney General of California

Rivals: 1) Bernie Sanders, 2) Elizabeth Warren, 3) Joe Biden

In the Polls: 8.0% 

Donation Record: $1.5mn within 24 hours; $23.8mn overall

Key Policies: 

• Healthcare - Backs 'Medicare for All' which would provide universal health insurance

• Immigration - Opposed to most current policy (ie anti-wall, detention centres, and splitting families)

• Climate Change - Supports the Green New Deal 

• Education - Free college for incomes below $125,000, and has planned for a large teacher pay rise 

• Justice & Drugs - Pro-weed legalisation; anti-death penalty; history of tough action as California DA ("I did the work of significantly reforming the criminal justice system of the state of 40 million people")

• Foreign Policy - Favoured withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan; opposed to Yemen involvement; staunchly pro-Israel

• Taxation - Introduced a tax cut for middle-class provisionally costing $2.8trn over a decade

Chances:

An uncontroversial, well-liked candidate, Mrs Harris sits fourth in a race of twenty-four. She is probably the most charismatic of the front-runners with relative youth and an advantageous background (child of immigrants, success as Attorney General). 

She's fairly strong on policy, with her middle-class tax cuts a detailed appeal to the centre-ground, and she has an ability to connect to key demographics. 

I don't agree with all of this, but the 29% figure is clear.

However, she will struggle to distinguish herself from the other three, being too left towards Bernie Sanders (see similarities on education, climate, and healthcare), too wonkish towards Elizabeth Warren, and sharing too many potential voters with Joe Biden. 

Yet her clear message, readiness to pivot towards the centre, and more conservative action on crime means that if she can secure the nomination, she will have a chance in the real thing. 

A quarter of Democrats already think she could beat Trump - more than most candidates. I agree.

Chances of being Nominated: 5/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 8/10

Elizabeth Warren

"Today's big tech companies have too much power-too much power over our economy, our society, and our democracy. They've bulldozed competition...and titled the playing field against everyone else."

Age: 69


Current Job: Senator for Massachusetts

Career: Law Professor; oversaw post-Recession economic stimulus; adviser to President Obama on financial fair play

Rivals: 1) Kamala Harris 2) Joe Biden

In the Polls: 17.3%

Donation Record: $300,000 within 24 hours; $25.1mn overall


Key Policies:

• Healthcare - Backs Medicare for All and favours profit regulation for insurance companies; has suggested opening a government-run pharmaceutical firm to bring prices down

• Immigration - pro-ICE (immigration agency) replacement; favours decriminalising illegal border crossings

• Climate - Supports GND; wants public companies to disclose impact of climate change; has suggested new laws on water cleanliness, methane pollution, etc.

• Education - Plans to partially forgive student debt & make public higher education free

• Justice & Drugs - pro-weed-legalisation; anti-death penalty

• Foreign Policy - favours Afghanistan withdrawal; opposed to Yemen involvement; has criticised Israel openly

• Taxes - reversal of 2017 tax cuts; wealth tax on 75,000 richest Americans

Chances:

Elizabeth Warren has a reputation of being a policy 'wonk' - someone who likes detail and understands the complexity of law. Where the above candidates had eight/nine policy categories on other websites, Warren had about twelve, each properly developed.

This is in contrast to Sanders' big-picture thinking, or Harris' inexperience in high office. Warren's plans to heavily regulate Big Tech have gone down a storm, helping her sit ahead of Bernie in the polls. 

But the cost, oh the cost. $37 trillion over ten years for all her policies. And does she have the sparkle necessary to out-charm Biden?

Trump and Warren would be a very, very entertaining contest; his opportunism versus her structured detail. In theory, she is capable of gaining moderate Republican votes, but could she stand up to Trump in a TV debate, where her deliberate, scripted speech would be drowned out?

Yet the focus on plausible policy is encouraging, and if she could make the message heard, Warren would be in with a chance.

Chances of being Nominated: 7/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 7/10

Joe Biden

"We're all human, and we can all be misled. When leaders don't level with citizens, we can't expect them to make good judgments."


Age: 76

Current Job: N/A

Career: Delaware Senator; Vice-President

Rivals: 1) Elizabeth Warren.

In the Polls: 30.5%

Donation Record: $21mn April-June 2019 + $10.9mn cash on hand


Key Policies:

• Healthcare: Wants to build upon Obamacare - which he helped introduce - but anti-Medicare for All due to cost

• Immigration: Wants to increase border security, but not Trumpian style

• Climate: Has not endorsed GND, but fully backs Paris Accords; criticism for 'cut and paste' climate plan

• Education: Supports free college education; pro-universal preschool care

• Justice & Drugs: History of deterrence-based crime law (more prison & police funding etc.)

• Foreign Policy: Tough on Russia; supported drone strikes in Syria; anti-Libya intervention

• Taxes: Higher taxes on wealthy Americans; increased tax relief for middle-class

Chances:

Joe Biden. Three-time Presidential contender, former vice-president, and long-term senator. After an early surge to 42%, 'Uncle Joe' has fallen somewhat, but is still the clear leader. 

A tough man lies behind the amiability; his wife and daughter died when he was 29, and a son passed away four years ago. He has integrity and commands genuine appeal in the 'rust belt' swing states, as well as having a history of pragmatism that is sorely lacking in America. 

If he showed some developed policy ideas, and overcame some awkward historical senate votes, he might be able to defend his left flank from Warren and Harris. 

But he could well stumble at the televised debates in September, and his perceptions of race, gender and personal space are still clumsy.

The Economist has written that 'Mr Biden's long-ago working class roots are [not] a substitute for the serious reappraisal of economic policy' needed. 

They aren't wrong. Biden will not bring the energetic changes that much of America is looking for. 

He is too prone to gaffes and his support base too apathetic (in comparison to the frantic cheers at rivals' rallies) to hold up for eight months against an incumbent who will find gaps and holes everywhere. He might win the working-class, but he would lose the left-wing, especially as Sanders would probably run if Biden won.

Chances of being Nominated: 8/10

Chances of Beating Trump: 4/10

This is how I ranked the four:

Winning the Nomination:

1. Biden
2. Warren
3. Harris
4. Sanders

Winning the Presidency:

1. Harris
2. Warren
3. Sanders
4. Biden

On this conclusion, it seems that Warren has the best combined chance of victory, while Biden would be thoroughly unsuitable if elected as candidate. Sanders is barely worth considering. 

Yet there are still seven months until the primaries begin in March, and anything could happen. Let's just hope 'anything' favours Kamala Harris.

Theo