Oh Jeremy Corbyn...?

Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party is widely tipped to become Prime Minister in the next general election (in 2022) if not before. I’m not so sure.



The Economist predicts a Corbyn victory...

The Labour Party surpassed all expectations last June when they secured 262 of 650 seats in

Parliament- up 30 from 2015.

Pollsters and experts alike were discussing the probability of a Tory landslide, but maverick Jeremy Corbyn instead led Labour to not-exactly-victory-but-a-better-than-expected-result.

Most journalists are now pushing the idea that he could win the next election, but I feel they’re simply overcompensating for their badly incorrect predictions of the 2017 election.



...as does the i.



40% vote share

The Labour Party was founded in 1900 to represent the working class and trade unions. They’ve since had six prime ministers and varying degrees of success in Opposition; they're the only party equal to the Conservatives, with a far wider support base.

In 1992 the party suffered one of their most humiliating election defeats, only taking 271 seats. The then leader, Neil Kinnock, subsequently resigned.

Jezza celebrating what was, really, a defeat.

And last year, Jeremy Corbyn performed worse than Kinnock. Instead, he decided to stay in power, even though Labour's vote share was only around 40%.

For a party that’s meant to be on an equal footing with the Conservatives, and has trounced them in the past, Corbyn's 'successes' are quite hollow. It's worth remembering that for all the bombast about his performance in the last election, he still lost - badly. 

Hearts and minds

Theresa May had the worst ever approval rating for a British Prime Minister a month after an election. Her net rating of -25 (she's 'disliked' 25% more than 'liked') is far worse than Corbyn's -11.

That's good news for Labour, right? Well...no. May still has a clear margin on 'Suitability for Prime Minister' (12% more), and if Corbyn has a much better approval rating, why is Labour not making more headway in the polls?

The parties are only a few points apart, as they've been for months. If Labour are unable to exploit the raging disapproval of Prime Minister May after 6 months, then it doesn't bode well for the next five years.

Granted, Corbyn was in a similar position before the last election, but he's reached the limits of his current support base (i.e. the youth and poorer communities). He needs to find more votes from somewhere, and he's making little progress with over-35s and richer homes. It's hardly the success story that the media proclaims.

Jeremy Corbyn's political strength is grossly overestimated: he and the Labour Party aren't skilled enough to exploit their opponent's unpopularity and poor handling of Brexit; and his 2017 election result wasn't a success, no matter what his supporters may say.

His chances of securing a majority in Parliament are much smaller than he would have you believe.