China and the USA - A new World Order?

The world power/economic*order is always changing at some level. Whilst it's mostly just smaller countries insignificantly jostling for position, every so often there's a shift in power and influence near the top of the rankings. This is always a major occurrence, that has huge implications around the globe.

Move over USA; there's a new kid on the block.

The Past

In terms of influence and leadership the World powers remained in relatively constant positions for fifty years after World War Two: the USA always at 'Number One'; Russia/USSR at 'Number Two', then various Western European nations and Japan made up the next five or so. China was rarely regarded as a major diplomatic or militaristic power throughout.

The USA's global power is put down to its exploding economy at the turn of the 1900s which made it a large contributor to both World Wars - often by giving loans to its allies that made it lots of money later on. But it was untouched by actual war in either, which meant that (unlike its European allies) it had a complete infrastructure network post-war, as well as millions of unharmed civilians who could work at full capacity in the economic booms that followed. This created a very strong economy and military that no other country on Earth had the resources or the living standards to match until very recently. 

China's more recent economic development

China, on the other hand, spent the first half of the 21st century in almost constant fighting, lurching from conflict to conflict. There was a saying that 'conscription comes to the Chinese peasant like famine or flood, only more frequently.' The government corruption, low living standards, and national instability meant that China had very little power globally; and a relatively poor economy. 

It was only in the 1970s, during communist rule, that they first began to invest into the economy and stimulate growth, allowing an increase in living standards and encouraging an industrial revolution. Their economy kept growing, embarking on a rapid increase in the 2000s, becoming the Earth's second-largest in 2011. Their economic influence - most of the world depends on it for trade and manufacturing - as well as their militaristic growth, helped turn it into a diplomatic heavyweight, rivaling Russia and just a little way behind the USA.

The Present

Donald Trump's election as President of 

the USA has had a quick effect on the country's reputation. The graph on the right shows the percentage of people who felt confident of America's global position under Obama (light red) and Trump (dark red). Most of these countries are strong allies of the USA - with the exception of Russia. 

This general loss of confidence - notwithstanding Israel and Russia -  reflects an increasing desperation at America's changing world attitude. Trump tried to block Muslims from certain countries from entering the US, has withdrawn from the historic Paris Agreement on combating global warming and has insulted almost every industrialised nation at one time or another in his infamous tweets. They also suffered badly in the 2008 recession, with the government spending billions on bailouts and investments, with jobs being lost nationally and American banks imploding. The Western world demands a more trustworthy and stronger leader.

President Xi Jinping of China

By contrast, China's economy is forecast to overtake the USA's within a decade; most likely around the 2025 mark. It's now cheaper to pick cotton in the USA; send it all the way to Asia for manufacturing into T-shirts, then bring it back again and sell in the US, rather than do it all in America. Such is the dependency on the region because of the cheapness of labour. This makes America very dependent on China to create finished goods, showing China's ever-growing position of strength over the biggest democracy in the world.

Also, China made re-commitments to the Paris Agreement, giving hope that the world's largest carbon producer is determined to make an effort to change its ways. This contrasts with the previously pro-Agreement US's backtrack, and could be an early signal that China aims to replace America as the world leader on certain issues. However it isn't all good; the growing population needs constant job creation and employment, which depends on free trade and strong diplomatic links: things that Trump's America rejects. This means that China desperately needs new markets to sell to, which points it towards the other Western nations.

The Future?

It seems to be that China will replace the USA as world leader on certain issues, like climate change; trade, and diplomatic unity, but there won't be total switch; the USA will still retain influence for a long time, due to its possessing the largest military in the world and a consumer base that supports whole markets by itself. 

Furthermore, China's 'one-party' system and human rights abuses means that it will struggle to establish a personal relationship with European nations. It's yet to take proper action on North Korea, it's causing unrest in the South China Sea, and it's not got a strong reputation for peace-making and brokering deals. Whilst China is certainly on the rise, I doubt that it will truly depose the USA from Number One. It may just be that we will reach a point where there becomes a balance of world power with China dominating trade, and the US championing personal freedom. 

Thanks for reading, more than happy to take questions, advice etc. in comments! 

*When I mention 'economy/economic', I'm referring the total amount of money made by a country per year, also known as the GDP (Gross Domestic Product).