InVincible...?

Several months ago, I wrote a post on the Liberal Democrats’ failings (here). But the resulting question was left unanswered: what do they need to do to improve? I’m not the authority on that though, so I had a chat with Sir Vince Cable, their 75 year-old leader. 

He’s an interesting man, but it was hard to grasp who he was over the course of one evening. At times he was funny, in other moments he was ponderously philosophical and intelligent, but he always came across as courteous and honest, even if his age certainly meant he was a little slower to “get going”. 

And so...what did he say? I asked him direct two questions, and have pinched his answer to many others. 

Brexit and the economy featured most frequently, but tuition fees, housing and media coverage all surfaced.

Local Housing: “How do you think Liberal Democrat planning policies could make a difference to the local community?”

Vince Cable firstly addressed the need for more housing stock, pointing out the inability of young people to afford housing, before mentioning the party’s success in Eastleigh and Eastbourne; local Liberal Democrats there have ensured that “infrastructure is properly in place” before developing residential homes.

One standout line was his desire to develop “a proper mix of private housing...affordable housing, social housing”. This was backed up by the local party candidate, who pointed to the manifesto as evidence of a coherent Lib Dem policy.

PR and being visual: “How do you see the Liberal Democrats expanding in size and pushing the government in opposition?”

Opening statement: “It’s difficult to be more vocal and visual unless you get an area on the national media”. 

Old people taking selfies

This is a concern he’s addressed before, and he later reminded those present that he only gets a Prime Minister’s Questions slot once every four weeks. “Two very difficult general elections” have worsened the problem.

Yet he was pleased to have disproved critics in the recent local elections, hoping that their success would yield more airtime (spoilers: it hasn’t). 

He also raised Brexit ^{(Count 1)} as an area on which the media could focus, because of the party's distinction on the issue.

National Strategy: “If you are going to avoid being a modest party with much to be modest about, what’s the plan, what does the party need to do about it?”

We’d done it. Local media had irritated Vince Cable. And it only took three questions. 

He tersely pointed out Nick Clegg’s tenure as Deputy Prime Minister as an example of national success, and, while he accepted that they had struggled in 2015 and 2017, those failures were “far from being the end of the story”. 

He (more calmly now) told us that the party mood was a lot more upbeat, and happily reminded us of their recent success in local government.

Three's a crowd?

He also raised the “largest membership in our history” card - an obvious source of pride. Brexit ⁽²⁾ was an area he could claim success on - being the only truly united party on the issue. 

Tory polarisation and Labour leftism also came up as reasons to turn to the third party.

Young People: “How would the Liberal Democrat party seek to reclaim the younger vote, where it’s often absorbed by Labour or is just apathetic to politics in general?”

Mr Cable took the issue head on, first by discussing that “Labour were very successful at pulling in younger people” at the last general election [disproved: young adult voting levels didn’t change disproportionately in 2017], arguing that their seemingly anti-Brexit⁽³⁾ stance attracted many. He then, rather predictably, attacked Mr Corbyn for his now-vague Brexit stance, showing how united the Liberal Democrats are in contrast.    

Obviously, he had to discuss tuition fees; they have been adapting their policy to reflect the reality of “university finance issues”, and there was optimism about “recovering that ground”. Mr Cable claimed that the Lib Dems are now well received on campuses across the country, often in the ascendancy to Labour.

But the answer finished on a bit of boilerplate about the tech firms and housing, vaguely linked to young people, but mostly showcasing the liberal agendum.

Despite Mr cable's claims, 
the Lib Dems still have a rather high rejection rate among young people.

Economy: “You’ve traded a few barbs with Corbyn over his economic strategy...what is the Liberal Democrat strategy for the economy?”

Good question - what is their economic strategy? 

Mr Cable emphasised the principles of “responsible business”: apparently a mix of free-market enterprise and government-encouraged ethical business. He expressed contempt for both leftist state control and right-wing weak welfare, preferring an imprecise combination of both. 

The redistribution of wealth and the 1p NHS tax featured, suggesting a little left-thinking, although he assures that it has “to be done in a mixed economy”. He referred back to his stint in the Coalition cabinet as a source of authority.

And...?

And that’s it! To bring you everything that he said would make this blog never-ending, but hopefully this is enough to satisfy you.

My overall opinion? Even if the party is in a rut, Mr Cable put on a good showing. Do consider them somewhat in 2022.

But not that much.

Several photo credits to the Wokingham Paper - more can be found at https://www.wokinghampaper.com/

The Lib Deads

In a political atmosphere where Jeremy Corbyn is splitting opinion like marmite and Theresa May as safe as a nuclear deterrent, alternative and third parties could do well. Yet there don’t seem to be any - where are the Liberal Democrats? 

Origin Story

First they were the ‘Liberals’, the only rivals to the 'Torys' until 1900. Then they became the ‘Liberal-Social Democrats’ in 1981. Finally, after a bad election in 1987, they simplified and became just the ‘Liberal Democrats’ and Britain’s third biggest party.

All smiles at the announcing of the coalition...

During Nick Clegg’s leadership in 2010, they secured enough seats (57) to form a coalition with the Conservatives, but governing was tough. 

Their support base of young people fled to Labour after a broken promise to freeze tuition fees, and the party became more and more ignored, especially after a humiliating referendum defeat on an alternative voting system. 

The result in 2015? Losing 49 seats. Nick Clegg resigned, the Conservatives had a majority, and the Liberal Democrats were disgraced. 

...then devastation in 2015

Their next leader was Tim Farron, who had to prevent the party’s collapse, endure a European Union Referendum, and react to Cameron’s fall and the rise of May and Corbyn. 

For a smaller, poorer party expecting five years rest, the referendum and the 2017 snap election drained their finances and support base. They could only muster 12 seats - nothing near what they expected. 
After Farron resigned for personal reasons, Sir Vince Cable took over, but they still sit at only 7.5% in the polls.

Long term Lib Dem Vince Cable has to lead an
ageing party

What's going wrong?

Basically, Brexit and old people. 

While those two things sound synonymous, what I mean is that their line over Brexit hurts them, and the look of the Party does not look like an election-winner.

It was Farron who initially demanded a second referendum on Brexit; mainly because the first result was so close that it didn’t represent a clear majority. Principally, it’s not a bad way to think; encouraging pro-active and clear democracy.

Pragmatically, however, it’s impractical and awkward. The EURef campaign was poisonous and damaging, and few people want to see a repeat. Also, the result has been widely accepted, and wanting a second vote sounds a bit like they’re just rejecting a result they didn’t like. 

The idea has since morphed into a vote on the eventual Brexit agreement instead, which seems more reasonable, but support is still uncertain, because there’s no idea what would happen if the deal was rejected.

The Party’s lack of MPs means many have to perform several jobs, and the face of the Lib Dems rests on a few politicians who repeatedly appear in the media. Alas, they’re all old.

The average age of a Liberal Democrat MP is 53.5 years - the highest of any party. 67% are aged 40-59 (the same as the notoriously middle-aged Conservatives), and their Youth Spokesperson is 68! 

Liberal Democrat MPs - all twelve of them

While they’re certainly experienced, it doesn't suggest they have an intimate knowledge of vital younger age groups - those most willing to support moderate, moral ideas. 

They also have a dear shortage of young, dynamic leaders. Clegg had gravitas and determination, Farron seemed principled and bubbly. 

Cable is highly experienced and intelligent, but is ageing (he's almost 75). He was recently quoted as saying it's 'perfectly plausible' that he could be Prime Minister - earning him ridicule rather than rapture.
Their middle-class comfort and rising age range puts them largely out of touch of the population.

Or...

Europe's three biggest right-wing politicians:
(left to right) Geert Wilders of the PVV (Dutch),
Frauke Petry of AfD (German), and Marine Le Pen of FNF (French)

Is there another reason? The success of Trump, Brexit, and Europe's Far-Right shows that extreme populism is in. 

People are fed up with the 'establishment'; centrism and the art of compromise and moderation is no longer politically trendy - people want to see their stubborn values prioritized above give and take and balance. 

Thus, the Lib Dems are no longer popular because they represent something else - hope, progression, and tolerance of all values. These are not idolised by the West right now.

But values change, and maybe the Liberal Democrats will too.