Road to Nowhere?

Today is Brexit Day. The road here has been long, ending not just three years of bizarre politics, but a saga that stretches back to the 1960s and has claimed three British Prime Ministers. Here is the definitive timeline.

Pre-Referendum

Thatcher's resignation was heavily
linked to Europe

1963 & 67: Britain is twice denied entry to the EC because of 'deep-seated hostility' to the European project.

1969: Britain is allowed membership of the EC.

1975: A referendum approves our EC membership by a 35% majority.

1990: Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher resigns over divisions with her Cabinet on Europe.

1992: The EC becomes the EU, with 'ever closer union' a guiding principle.

2006: Newly-elected party leader David Cameron criticises the Conservatives for 'banging on about Europe' amid more important issues.

2010: Cameron wins a general election and forms a government with the pro-EU Liberal Democrats.

(2010-15: Three of the biggest Conservative backbench rebellions in this government are over EU/immigration.)

2013: Without Lib Dem approval, Cameron makes his 'Bloomberg Speech', where he commits to major reform of the EU and an in/out referendum on membership.

2015: A Conservative majority government is elected with a manifesto pledge for a referendum. This will be held in 2016 after renegotiating British EU membership.

2016

David Cameron resigns on the morning of the election

June 2016: The Referendum result shows a majority for leaving the EU. Cameron promptly resigns as Prime Minister.

July 2016: Theresa May becomes Prime Minister after a Conservative Party leadership race.

October 2016: May indicates a desire for a 'hard' Brexit: leaving most/all EU arrangements. 

2017

March 2017: Article 50 - the document that allows leaving the EU - is triggered to start a two-year negotiation period.

June 2017: A disastrously fought general election wipes out May's majority and establishes a fragmented, chaotic parliament.

December 2017: Fractious UK-EU negotiations lead to a 'joint agreement', providing the outline for a post-Brexit relationship. However, it is far from the final deal.

2018

Summer 2018: May outlines her vision for the final deal. Meanwhile, Parliament gives itself the power to vote on and and when the deal is agreed.

Autumn 2018: The EU reject May's plan, but a compromise is reached in late November, finally creating a Brexit deal. Theresa May survives a vote of confidence by her own party, but then postpones Parliament's vote on the deal, fearing they won't pass it.

Theresa May wins the Conservative Party vote of confidence

2019

Winter 2019: May finally brings the deal to a vote and suffers the worst government Commons defeat in British history. The next day she survives a parliamentary Vote of No Confidence.

March 2019: After two failed attempts to pass the Brexit deal, May agrees an extension of Article 50 until 31st October. 

Theresa May resigns

May 2019: However, a catastrophic performance in the EU elections forces May to finally resign, becoming the third Conservative Prime Minister to do so over Europe.

Summer 2019: Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister after a leadership race, and commits to the 31st October deadline. 

September 2019: The Supreme Court orders Johnson to reverse a prorogation of Parliament, which then passes a vote blocking Brexit without a deal.

Autumn 2019: Johnson fails to pass his own Brexit deal, but after a 'no-deal Brexit' is avoided, is successful in calling a general election

December 2019: Johnson wins a landslide victory, thus eliminating effective opposition. Jeremy Corbyn resigns as leader of the Labour Party.

The iconic slogan of the election

2020

January 2020: A new decade. Johnson's Brexit deal passes with ease and is ratified by the EU. The UK will leave the EU, then enter into a transition period upholding the status quo, at 11pm on the 31st January.

Everyone was discussing it when I walked into school that morning. It had already been across TV and then it went viral online, like nothing else before it. No-one understood it, but we were all talking about it. We asked our teachers, but, as usual, they were clueless.

We had no idea what to make of the Referendum result. David Cameron had just announced his resignation. Sterling was in free fall. It was the only thing on people's minds, that sunny June day.

Then Donald Trump was elected President. What to make of that, too? There were dark jokes circulating that at least we weren't the 'screw-ups' of the year. Trump, in his fashion, captured conversations this side of the Atlantic too, even in the playground and the classroom.

And between Brexit and President Trump, the news feeds have barely stopped rolling. Every week, something else to engage with, as teenagers discussed 'Parliament', 'European Union' and 'impeachment'. Politics could be mentioned in the same breath as Love Island, The 1975 and history revision and no longer draw scorn or weird looks. 

So, politics became a public subject. Something worth knowing about, and a reasonable discussion topic. Not just in school, but at work or with family, too. Because as long as the disasters kept floating in, it was all rather interesting.


Notice the past tense though? Because that era is over.


With its convincing majority, Boris Johnson's government has already passed the Withdrawal Agreement, and his large majority means he has a clear authority to do whatever he likes. Most remainers have quietly conceded defeat, and the grudging British respect for elected authority has kicked in - the mentality now is 'back to normal life and wait for the next one'.

So, that period of Brexit, with all Theresa May's failures and the media frenzy, is over. There are no more disasters on the horizon to captivate us, or nasty debates about what Brexit should look like.

And the actions of President Trump alone will not keep politics in the schoolyard or the break-room. It is a given that he will not be impeached, and bar the apocalypse, his controversies are so frequent that they'll hardly merit a brief comment at work, never mind science lessons. Even if he wins the 2020 election, we'll just keep our heads down and carry on.

And rapidly, politics will stop being relevant. It will be met with the same derision it has earned from fourteen year olds for centuries. No longer worthy of schoolyard chat, politics will again become a quiet, niche interest.

Political discussion has reached its high-water mark. Time for the status quo again it seems.


Theo